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A diversionary foreign policy, or a diversionary war, is an International Relations term that identifies a war instigated by a country's leader in order to distract its population from their own domestic strife. The concept stems from the Diversionary War Theory, which states that leaders who are threatened by domestic turmoil occasionally initiate an international conflict in order to shift the nation's attention away from internal troubles. As a result, this external threat would counter the domestic strife and ensure the leader's position in power. Essentially, a diversionary use of force is a manipulation of the Rally Round the Flag Syndrome effect, causing an increase of national fervor from the general public.〔Sobek, David. "Rallying Around the Podesta: Testing Diversionary Theory Across Time." Journal of Peace Research 44.1 (2007): 29-45. 20 Oct. 2008 Many scholars of International Relations have dedicated much research to the practical application of diversionary war. A large percentage investigates United States presidents and their disputed culpability partaking in diversionary foreign policy.〔DeRouen, Karl. "Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note." International Studies Quarterly 44.2 (2000): 317-328. JSTOR. American University. 20 Oct. 2008. Despite the immense amount of effort and research, scholars have not yet formed a consensus of the accuracy of the theory, and empirical evidence is mixed at best.〔Mowle, Thomas S. "Worldviews in Foreign Policy: Realism Liberalism, and External Conflict." Political Psychology 24.3 (2003): 561-592. JSTOR. American University. 20 Oct. 2008. == Effects == Intended Generally, the pursuit of a diversionary foreign policy may offer the leader in power four benefits, all of which increase their ability to remain in power:〔Sobek, David. "Rallying Around the Podesta: Testing Diversionary Theory Across Time." Journal of Peace Research 44.1 (2007): 29-45. 20 Oct. 2008 #A successful diversionary foreign policy could increase support for the domestic regime. This in turn increases that government's time to address their internal trouble. #Artificial tension created from the international conflict may justify a leaders' suppression of dissent. #The war abroad could cause the population to simply be distracted from the issues that induced the original dissatisfaction with the government. #The external threat may unify the country through the Rally Round the Flag Syndrome effect by creating a new out-group other than the government for the population to direct its dissatisfaction. Negative However, all of these benefits depend on success in the diversionary war that the government facing domestic strife incites. Failure in these international actions would backfire against the leader's initial intent. As a result, the leader would likely face more domestic strife, possibly hastening his or her loss of power 〔Chiozza, Giacomo. "Peace through Insecurity: Tenure and International Conflict." The Journal of Conflict Resolution 47.4 (2003): 443-467. JSTOR. American University. 20 Oct. 2008. Nevertheless, this possible negative effect is addressed in the Diversionary War Theory. The theory itself states that rational leaders facing a near inevitable removal from office become more likely to gamble on a risky diversionary war. If the existing dissatisfaction is prompting their removal from office, a diversionary foreign policy only leaves room for gain 〔Smith, Alastair. "Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems." International Studies Quarterly 40.1 (1996): 133-153. JSTOR. American University. 20 Oct. 2008. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「diversionary foreign policy」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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